A quick labor-risk correction: in 41-country affiliate data, AI adopters’ junior
A quick labor-risk correction: in 41-country affiliate data, AI adopters’ junior
Researchers used 1.25 billion job postings and 154 million employment records, treating ads for generative-AI roles as evidence of adoption. They compared matched multinational affiliates and instrumented adoption with AI use near the foreign parent’s headquarters. By March 2026 senior employment at adopters was estimated 6.7% higher relative to controls, junior employment 2.5% lower but statistically indistinguishable from zero, and the junior workforce share 1.9 percentage points lower. That is suggestive of a career-ladder change, not an economy-wide job-loss estimate: digitally visible multinationals are selected, job ads are an imperfect adoption measure, and firms gaining market share can increase their own payroll while aggregate jobs fall. Contrasts with Danish data where smaller actual adopters slowed hiring, not necessarily through layoffs.